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Free tool · Forecaster & P&L

what you sell, and what you keep.

One model, both halves. Set your unit economics, size your volume, and watch monthly GMV, contribution and margin move together as you type.

1
Unit economics

What one order is worth once everyone has taken their cut.

Editable. Defaults to 6%, checked August 2026.
2
Volume

How many of those orders a month, once the engine is running.

At month 6, modelled from your category, investment level and LIVE choice. Already trading? Type your own number over it.
Will you run LIVE?

Live tool: the numbers on the right also update as you type. Starting point: a beauty brand at £25 AOV, growing investment, LIVE in the plan.

Monthly forecast
at month 6
£53kto£114k

Monthly GMV, gross of returns. Base case £83k.

£32k contribution a month, after returns
38.2% contribution margin on GMV
3,335 orders a month, base case
£38k
month 3
£14k kept
£83k
month 6
£32k kept
£158k
month 12
£61k kept
Per order
break-even ROAS 2.4x
£10.25

Contribution per order before returns, 41.0% of AOV. After returns you keep £38.25 of every £100 of GMV.

Negative contribution
This order loses money. Costs and fees exceed the order value, so there is no break-even ROAS and paid spend only deepens the loss. Raise the price, cut landed cost or trim the commission until contribution turns positive.
Average order value£25.00
Landed cost−£6.00
Affiliate commission−£3.75
Platform fee−£1.50
Fulfilment−£3.50
Contribution per order£10.25
Returns impact per order−£0.69
Net contribution after returns£9.56
How this is calculated

No black box. Two models joined at the average order value: your unit economics decide what one order is worth, your volume decides how many of them there are.

Per order

  • contribution = AOV − landed cost − commission% × AOV − platform fee% × AOV − fulfilment.
  • Returns: on a returned order the model assumes the product and the fees come back, but the fulfilment cost does not. net contribution = (1 − returns rate) × contribution − returns rate × fulfilment.
  • break-even ROAS = AOV ÷ contribution, on contribution before returns. Below that, paid amplification burns cash.
  • Kept per £100 of GMV = net contribution ÷ AOV × 100.

Volume

  • Investment level sets a month-6 monthly order range: starting 400 to 900, growing 1,200 to 2,600, aggressive 3,000 to 6,500 orders. These are the ranges we see across £100m+ of managed GMV.
  • Category multipliers on the mid-point: beauty & personal care 1.3, fashion & apparel 1.15, health & wellness 1.1, food & drink 1.0, home & lifestyle 0.9.
  • Running LIVE applies a 1.35x uplift. LIVE and affiliate content compound, and roughly 42% of US GMV is driven by affiliate creator content (eMarketer).
  • That gives the modelled monthly orders in the box. Type over it and the model uses your number instead, keeping the same low and high spread as your investment level (for growing, 0.63x and 1.37x of the base).

Putting them together

  • monthly GMV = monthly orders × AOV, shown gross of returns because that is how the platform reports it.
  • monthly contribution = monthly orders × net contribution per order, so returns are already out of it.
  • Contribution margin is monthly contribution ÷ monthly GMV.
  • Ramp: month 3 is modelled at 45% of month 6, month 12 at 190% of month 6, in line with about 48% forecast market growth for 2026 (eMarketer) plus channel maturity.

Fixed costs, samples, agency fees and content production sit above this line. The full 12-month model, in final production now, adds them so you can get from contribution to profit — the waitlist below gets it the day it ships.

Every figure is directional, not a promise. Fee inputs are editable because fee schedules change, so check your own seller terms.

The full model · in production

the full model is in final production.

This page is the quick version. The spreadsheet we plan with — seven tabs, every assumption editable, yours to fork — is being rebuilt right now, and we would rather say that than hand you an unfinished file.

Inputs and assumptions on one tab, so you can change any of them and watch the rest move
Unit economics and channel mix broken out, LIVE, affiliate, content and paid
A twelve-month forecast, month by month, with a scenario compare tab for low, base and high
A dashboard that rolls it up, and a read-me that explains every assumption

Built from 80+ managed shops

Join the waitlist

The full 12-month model is in final production — join the list and it lands in your inbox the day it ships. One email, nothing before it. The calculator above stays free and live either way.

Nothing is sent today. Your scenario travels with the request so we can sanity-check it before the model reaches you. Privacy policy.

FAQ

questions about the maths.

Is the forecast a guarantee?
No. Every figure is directional, not a promise. The model gives you a range, not a point, precisely because outcomes depend on execution: creator volume, content quality, LIVE cadence and offer architecture all move the result inside and beyond the range. Treat it as a sizing exercise for the channel, then pressure-test the assumptions in a real plan.
Where do the order ranges come from?
From the trading patterns we see across £100m+ of managed GMV and 80+ brands. Investment level sets a month-6 monthly order range, a category multiplier adjusts for demand, and running LIVE applies a 1.35x uplift. Every assumption is published in the calculation panel on this page, and the modelled order figure is editable, so if you already trade you can type your own volume over it.
What fees does TikTok Shop charge sellers?
The main lines are the platform (referral) fee on each order, the affiliate commission you choose to offer creators, and your own fulfilment and returns costs. The tool defaults to a 6% platform fee, editable because fee schedules change and vary by market and category. Always check your own seller terms, and re-run the numbers whenever TikTok updates them.
What is break-even ROAS and why does it matter?
Break-even ROAS is your average order value divided by your contribution per order: the return on ad spend at which paid amplification stops losing money. If your contribution is £10.25 on a £25 order, break-even ROAS is about 2.4x, so any campaign delivering less than £2.40 of revenue per £1 of spend is burning cash. It is the single most useful number to know before switching on GMV Max.
Why does running LIVE change the number so much?
Because LIVE compresses demonstration, urgency and checkout into one moment, and it compounds with affiliate content: creators warm the audience that the LIVE room converts. That is why the model applies an uplift when LIVE is in the plan, and why the biggest results on the platform are LIVE-led.
Why is GMV gross but contribution net of returns?
Because that is how the two numbers are used. GMV is the topline the platform reports and the number your commercial targets are set in, so it is shown gross. Contribution is the money that reaches your bank, so returns are taken out of it: on a returned order the model assumes the product and the fees come back but the fulfilment cost does not.

want the number underwritten by a team.

£100m+ of GMV managed across 80+ brands. Tell us the product, the price point and the target, and we will tell you which lever moves it first.

Talk to us